India Climate Vulnerability: 109 Very High-Risk Districts

Quick answer: what did the government tell Parliament on climate vulnerability?

On 27 July 2026, Union Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav told the Lok Sabha that national assessments over the past decade have classified 109 districts as "very high" climate-risk and 201 as "highly" vulnerable. NICRA simulation modelling projects rainfed rice yields falling 20% by 2050 and 47% by 2080 in the absence of adaptation.

Syllabus mapping

• Prelims: NAPCC and its nine missions, NICRA, ICAR, UNFCCC, IPCC, National Communications, Panchamrit, NDCs, Western Ghats ESA, Gadgil and Kasturirangan committees, IMD Climate Hazard and Vulnerability Atlas.
• Mains GS-1: Important geophysical phenomena; changes in critical geographical features — monsoon variability, Himalayan glaciers, coastal zones.
• Mains GS-3: Environmental degradation and conservation; disaster management; agriculture, food security and cropping patterns.

Why in news

Replying to questions in the Lok Sabha on 27 July 2026, the Minister for Environment, Forest and Climate Change placed on record a consolidated picture of India's climate exposure. Three strands came together in that reply: the district-level vulnerability classification, the crop-yield projections from ICAR's NICRA network, and the institutional response architecture built around the National Action Plan on Climate Change.

A caution before you memorise the numbers. The 109 and 201 district figures are not new. The identical classification was tabled in Parliament in December 2023 by the then Agriculture Minister, drawn from the same ICAR-NICRA assessment. What the July 2026 reply does is restate and consolidate. Aspirants who write that India "released a new vulnerability assessment in July 2026" will be factually wrong.

Background: how climate risk is actually measured

Before the numbers make sense, the vocabulary has to. The IPCC risk framework — used explicitly by NICRA — treats risk as emerging from the interaction of three things:

1. Hazard: the physical climate event or trend. A heatwave, an intense rainfall spell, a drought, sea-level rise.
2. Exposure: the people, livelihoods, infrastructure, ecosystems and economic assets located in places where hazards occur.
3. Vulnerability: the propensity to be adversely affected. This has two components — sensitivity (how badly a system is hurt by a given shock) and adaptive capacity (the resources and institutions available to cope).

This distinction carries real analytical weight. A sparsely populated high-altitude district may face severe hazards but low exposure. A densely settled deltaic district with marginal landholdings and no irrigation faces moderate hazards but extreme vulnerability. The districts in the "very high" bucket are usually those where poverty, rainfed dependence and hazard frequency coincide.

The assessment India actually ran

Through ICAR's flagship network project National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA), the government conducted a district-level risk and vulnerability assessment of agriculture for 651 predominantly agricultural districts, following IPCC protocols. Of these, 109 were classified "very high" and 201 "highly" vulnerable — a combined 310 districts.

Note the scope carefully: this assesses agriculture's vulnerability, not every sector, and it is not a general-purpose climate risk index. Separate exercises exist — the Department of Science and Technology released a District-level Climate Risk Assessment for India: Mapping Flood and Drought Risks Using the IPCC Framework covering 698 districts in December 2024, with different numbers because it measures different things.

Key facts and figures

Particular	Detail
Statement made in	Lok Sabha, 27 July 2026
Minister	Bhupender Yadav, Environment, Forest and Climate Change
Districts at "very high" climate risk	109
Districts "highly" vulnerable	201
Districts assessed under NICRA	651 predominantly agricultural districts
Methodology	IPCC protocols; integrated computer simulation modelling for yields
Rainfed rice yield change	−20% by 2050; −47% by 2080
Irrigated rice yield change	−3.5% by 2050; −5% by 2080
Wheat yield change	−19.3% by 2050; −40% by 2080
Maize yield change	−18% by 2050; −23% by 2080
Annual milk yield loss (heat stress, cattle and buffalo)	About 1.8–2 million tonnes
MoES flagship report	Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region (2020)
Latest National Communication to UNFCCC	Third National Communication, 2023
IMD tool	Climate Hazard and Vulnerability Atlas of India — 13 hazardous meteorological events
NAPCC missions	Nine, of which six are adaptation-focused

A note on conflicting figures

Parliamentary replies on NICRA yield projections have not been perfectly consistent, and you should know this rather than be caught out by it.

• The July 2026 reply gives maize at −18% in 2050 and −23% in 2080. An ICAR reply to Lok Sabha Unstarred Question No. 2365 dated 10 December 2024 gives kharif maize at −10 to −19% in 2050 and greater than −20% in 2080.
• The July 2026 reply gives rainfed rice at −47% in 2080. A Rajya Sabha reply reported by The Indian Express phrased the same projection as a range: −10 to −47% during the 2080s.

The point estimates and the ranges come from the same modelling exercise; different replies compressed or expanded them. Cite the point estimates and attribute them — "as stated in the Lok Sabha in July 2026" — and do not present ranges and point estimates as separate findings.

Detailed explainer: reading the crop numbers properly

The single most useful thing in this data set is not any individual figure. It is the gap between rainfed and irrigated rice.

Rainfed rice is projected to lose 20% of yield by 2050. Irrigated rice loses 3.5% over the same horizon. Same crop, same country, same climate scenario — a roughly sixfold difference in damage. That gap is the value of assured water. It tells you that a very large share of India's projected agricultural climate damage is not an inevitable consequence of warming; it is a consequence of warming plus the absence of irrigation infrastructure.

Roughly half of India's net sown area remains unirrigated. The districts that dominate the "very high" vulnerability list — in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar, Odisha and parts of the North East — are disproportionately rainfed, small-holding and low-income. The vulnerability map is, to a significant degree, a poverty map with a climate overlay.

Wheat behaves differently. A 19.3% decline by 2050 rising to 40% by 2080 reflects a specific physiological mechanism: terminal heat stress. Wheat in the Indo-Gangetic Plain is sown in November–December and matures in March–April. A sudden warm spell during grain filling shortens the filling period and produces shrivelled grain. India saw this in real time in March 2022, when an unusually early heat spell cut wheat output and triggered export restrictions. The model projection and the lived experience point the same way.

Beyond crops

The Minister's reply also flagged livestock and fisheries. Heat stress in cattle and buffalo costs India roughly 1.8 to 2 million tonnes of milk annually. Rising temperatures are expected to reduce productivity in milk, meat, wool and draught power, and to shift fish migration and habitats — increasing stocks in some areas while depleting others. For a country where livestock is a major source of income smoothing for landless and marginal households, this is not a footnote.

The reporting architecture

India's climate knowledge base rests on four pillars, all named in the reply:

• National Communications to the UNFCCC. The Third National Communication, submitted by MoEFCC in 2023, reports GHG inventories, vulnerabilities and strategies, and records that India is experiencing the full range of impacts from floods and droughts to heatwaves and glacier melt.
• Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region (2020). Published by the Ministry of Earth Sciences; India's most comprehensive scientific assessment of observed and projected climate change over the subcontinent.
• IMD's Climate Hazard and Vulnerability Atlas of India. A web-based tool covering 13 major hazardous meteorological events, alongside IMD's analysis of rainfall extremes over the recent 30 years at state and district scales.
• ICAR-NICRA. The agricultural vulnerability layer — the district classification and the yield modelling.

Multi-dimensional analysis

The food security dimension

The National Food Security Act, 2013 covers up to 75% of the rural and 50% of the urban population. That entitlement is legally guaranteed; the grain to honour it is not climate-guaranteed. A 20% fall in rainfed rice yields does not translate one-to-one into a procurement crisis, because procurement is concentrated in irrigated surplus states like Punjab, Haryana and Telangana. But it does translate into a livelihood crisis in the rainfed districts, and it raises the fiscal cost of holding buffer stocks in a more volatile production environment.

A second-order risk follows. If procurement concentrates further in the irrigated northwest precisely because that is where yields hold up, the groundwater depletion already visible in Punjab and Haryana will accelerate. Adaptation through irrigation and groundwater sustainability pull against each other unless the water is surface-sourced or recharge-backed.

The federal and institutional dimension

The NAPCC was launched in 2008 with eight missions; the National Water Mission and others were subsequently joined by additional missions, and the reply confirms the current count at nine. All states and Union Territories have prepared State Action Plans on Climate Change (SAPCCs), aligned to the national missions.

The honest assessment is that SAPCCs have been stronger as planning documents than as delivery instruments. Most were prepared with limited dedicated funding, and the National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change (NAFCC), set up in 2015 with a corpus far smaller than the scale of the problem, could only support a modest number of projects. Adaptation in India is largely financed by mainstreaming — that is, by relabelling existing agriculture, water and rural development spending — rather than by new, additional money.

This matters for the district data. Identifying 310 vulnerable districts is useful only if it drives differential resource allocation. There is at present no formula that channels adaptation finance to districts in proportion to their assessed vulnerability. The classification exists; the fiscal transmission does not.

The governance-failure dimension: Western Ghats

If you want one concrete illustration of the gap between diagnosis and action, the Western Ghats Ecologically Sensitive Area notification is it.

The Western Ghats regulate the southwest monsoon for peninsular India, feed most of the region's major rivers, and constitute one of the world's recognised biodiversity hotspots. They are also, as the Wayanad landslides of 2024 demonstrated with brutal clarity, a landscape where ecological degradation and extreme rainfall combine lethally.

According to The Indian Express, the sixth iteration of the ESA draft notification — dated 31 July 2024 and published on 2 August 2024 — declared 56,825.7 sq km across Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala as ecologically sensitive. That draft has now lapsed. An expert committee constituted by MoEFCC in 2022 to examine state objections, headed by former Director General of Forests Sanjay Kumar, was given a one-year extension in late June 2026. Reporting indicates the Centre is now considering a phased, state-by-state notification, beginning with Gujarat, Maharashtra and Goa where boundaries are close to settled, rather than waiting for consensus across all six states.

Six draft notifications since 2014. Thirteen years since the Gadgil report. No final notification. That is the adaptation-implementation gap in a single case file — and it is a far more persuasive Mains example than a generic sentence about "poor implementation".

The equity dimension

Climate vulnerability in India is not distributed by geography alone. Within a "very high" risk district, a landless agricultural labourer, a woman-headed household and a tribal forest-dependent family face materially different exposure from a landowning farmer with a borewell and a crop insurance policy. Aggregate district scores hide intra-district inequality. Any adaptation programme designed off district averages will systematically under-serve the most vulnerable people inside those districts.

Comparative and global perspective

Framework or instrument	What it does	India's position
UNFCCC (1992)	Parent convention; principle of common but differentiated responsibilities	Party since 1993; submits National Communications and Biennial Update Reports
Paris Agreement (2015)	Nationally Determined Contributions; global goal on adaptation; Article 2.1(c) on finance flows	Updated NDC (August 2022): 45% cut in emissions intensity of GDP by 2030 from 2005 levels; about 50% non-fossil installed power capacity by 2030
IPCC	Scientific assessment; supplies the hazard-exposure-vulnerability risk framing NICRA uses	Indian scientists contribute; AR6 identified South Asia as a climate hotspot
Loss and Damage Fund	Operationalised at COP28 (2023) to address unavoidable climate harm	India has supported the developing-country position on adequate and additional finance
Sendai Framework (2015–2030)	Global disaster risk reduction targets	India's NDMA plans are aligned to Sendai priorities

The comparative point worth making is about adaptation finance. Global climate finance remains heavily skewed towards mitigation, because mitigation produces bankable assets — a solar plant sells electricity. Adaptation largely produces avoided losses, which no one pays for directly. UNEP's Adaptation Gap Reports have repeatedly found developing-country adaptation needs running far ahead of international public finance flows. India's 109 very-high-risk districts sit squarely inside that gap.

Panchamrit and the mitigation-adaptation balance

India's headline climate commitments — announced as the five Panchamrit elements at COP26 in Glasgow, including net zero by 2070 — are predominantly mitigation commitments. Two of the five were translated into the formal updated NDC of August 2022. The vulnerability data is a reminder that for a country in India's income and latitude band, adaptation is not the secondary agenda. Six of the nine NAPCC missions are adaptation-focused, which is the right instinct; the funding ratio does not yet match it.

Committee, court and expert views

Madhav Gadgil, Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel (report 2011). Recommended that the entire Western Ghats be treated as ecologically sensitive, graded into three zones (ESZ-1, ESZ-2, ESZ-3) with the strictest prohibitions in ESZ-1, and proposed a decentralised Western Ghats Ecology Authority with strong gram sabha involvement. State governments and industry resisted the extent of the restrictions.

K. Kasturirangan, High Level Working Group (report 2013). Narrowed the Gadgil approach by separating "natural" from "cultural" landscapes, classifying roughly 37% of the Ghats — about 60,000 sq km — as natural landscape deserving ESA status and excluding settlements, plantations and farms. Prohibitions on new mining and quarrying, red-category industries, thermal power and large construction apply only within the natural landscape. Every draft notification since has worked off this framework, with the area shrinking to 56,825.7 sq km by 2024, mainly through reductions in Kerala.

Supreme Court, M.K. Ranjitsinh and Others v. Union of India (2024). Hearing the Great Indian Bustard matter, the Court recognised a right to be free from the adverse effects of climate change, reading it into Articles 14 and 21 and grounding it in Article 48A and Article 51A(g). This is the most significant judicial link between climate and fundamental rights in India, and it is directly citable in a GS-2 or GS-3 answer.

Expert critique. The Council on Energy, Environment and Water, in its climate vulnerability index work, has argued that more than 80% of India's population lives in districts highly vulnerable to extreme hydro-meteorological events, and that over 40% of districts show a "swapping" trend — flood-prone areas turning drought-prone and vice versa. A district's risk profile is not fixed, which complicates any static map.

Way forward

1. Tie adaptation finance to the vulnerability classification. The 310-district list should become an allocation formula, not a parliamentary statistic. A weighted top-up to existing agriculture, watershed and rural employment budgets for the 109 "very high" districts would convert diagnosis into money without building new machinery.
2. Prioritise protective irrigation, not full irrigation, in rainfed districts. Extending canal command areas is slow and groundwater expansion is self-defeating. The targeted intervention is one or two supplemental waterings at critical growth stages, via farm ponds, check dams and recharge structures under watershed programmes — enough to break drought spells, not enough to invite over-extraction.
3. Notify the Western Ghats ESA in phases and stop waiting for unanimity. Gujarat, Maharashtra and Goa are reportedly close to settled. Notifying those three would end a thirteen-year drift and create a template. Continuing to hold the entire notification hostage to Kerala and Karnataka objections has already produced six lapsed drafts.
4. Scale seed systems for climate-resilient varieties. ICAR has released heat-tolerant wheat and drought-tolerant rice varieties through NICRA. The binding constraint is seed replacement rate in exactly the low-income rainfed districts that need them. Link varietal distribution to the vulnerability list through state seed corporations and Krishi Vigyan Kendras.
5. Make district disaster management plans climate-informed and auditable. The Disaster Management Act, 2005 already mandates district plans. Require each of the 109 districts to publish an annual adaptation compliance statement, reviewed by the State Disaster Management Authority. Accountability, not new legislation, is the missing piece.
6. Build heat action plans for livestock, not only for humans. A 1.8–2 million tonne annual milk loss is a measurable target — shade infrastructure, altered feeding schedules, village-level water availability, and breed selection through the Rashtriya Gokul Mission.

Static and current linkage

• Shankar IAS, Environment: chapters on Climate Change, Climate Change Organisations and Summits, Biodiversity Hotspots, and Environmental Legislation — the Western Ghats ESA and NAPCC content sits directly here.
• NCERT Class 11, Fundamentals of Physical Geography: atmospheric circulation, world climate and climate change.
• NCERT Class 11, India: Physical Environment: Indian climate, monsoon mechanism, El Niño and the Southern Oscillation, natural hazards and disasters.
• NCERT Class 12, India: People and Economy: agriculture, cropping patterns, rainfed farming, food security.
• Laxmikanth, Indian Polity: Articles 14 and 21 (for the Ranjitsinh judgment), Article 48A (Directive Principle on environment), Article 51A(g) (Fundamental Duty).
• Disaster Management Act, 2005: NDMA, SDMAs, District Disaster Management Authorities, National Disaster Response Fund.
• Economic Survey: the Climate Change and Environment chapter, and the Agriculture chapter for irrigation coverage data.

Prelims pointers

• 109 districts are classified "very high" climate-risk; 201 are "highly" vulnerable — a total of 310.
• The NICRA district assessment covered 651 predominantly agricultural districts.
• NICRA stands for National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture and is run by ICAR, under the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare.
• Rainfed rice: −20% by 2050, −47% by 2080.
• Irrigated rice: −3.5% by 2050, −5% by 2080.
• Wheat: −19.3% by 2050, −40% by 2080. Maize: −18% and −23%.
• Annual milk yield loss from heat stress in cattle and buffalo: 1.8–2 million tonnes.
• Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region was published by the Ministry of Earth Sciences in 2020.
• India's Third National Communication to the UNFCCC was submitted in 2023.
• IMD's Climate Hazard and Vulnerability Atlas of India covers 13 major hazardous meteorological events.
• The NAPCC was launched in 2008 and now has nine national missions; six are adaptation-focused.
• The nine missions: solar, enhanced energy efficiency, sustainable habitat, water, sustaining the Himalayan ecosystem, Green India, sustainable agriculture, human health, strategic knowledge on climate change.
• India's updated NDC (August 2022): emissions intensity of GDP down 45% by 2030 from 2005 levels; about 50% non-fossil cumulative installed electric power capacity by 2030.
• India's original 2015 NDC targets were 33–35% intensity reduction and 40% non-fossil capacity.
• Net-zero target year: 2070, announced at COP26, Glasgow (2021) as part of Panchamrit. LiFE was added to the updated NDC.
• India's Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) was submitted at COP27 in 2022.
• The Western Ghats ESA draft of 31 July 2024 (published 2 August 2024) covered 56,825.7 sq km across six states — Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala — and was the sixth iteration.
• The Gadgil panel (2011) was the Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel; the Kasturirangan group (2013) was the High Level Working Group.
• Kasturirangan recommended ESA status for about 37% of the Ghats, roughly 60,000 sq km.
• The MoEFCC expert committee on Western Ghats ESA was constituted in 2022 and is headed by Sanjay Kumar.
• The National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change (NAFCC) was set up in 2015.
• M.K. Ranjitsinh v. Union of India (2024) recognised a right against the adverse effects of climate change under Articles 14 and 21.
• The Loss and Damage Fund was operationalised at COP28 in 2023.

Mains linkage

Probable question 1 (GS-3, 15 marks): "India's climate vulnerability is as much a function of development deficits as of physical hazard. Examine with reference to recent district-level assessments."

Skeleton: IPCC hazard-exposure-vulnerability framing → the 109/201 district classification and where those districts are → the rainfed versus irrigated rice contrast as evidence that adaptive capacity, not hazard, drives damage → poverty, landholding size and irrigation access as vulnerability determinants → intra-district inequity → recommendations tying adaptation finance to the classification. Keywords: adaptive capacity, sensitivity, rainfed agriculture, protective irrigation, differential vulnerability, mainstreaming.

Probable question 2 (GS-3, 15 marks): "Discuss the projected impact of climate change on Indian agriculture and evaluate the adequacy of India's institutional response."

Skeleton: NICRA yield projections for rice, wheat, maize, plus livestock and fisheries → institutional map (NAPCC nine missions, six adaptation-focused; National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture; SAPCCs; NAFCC; NICRA itself) → gaps (adaptation finance is largely mainstreamed rather than additional; no vulnerability-linked allocation formula; low seed replacement rates) → way forward. Keywords: terminal heat stress, climate-resilient varieties, seed replacement rate, adaptation finance gap, mainstreaming.

Probable question 3 (GS-1/GS-3, 10 marks): "The Western Ghats Ecologically Sensitive Area notification illustrates the difficulty of implementing ecological regulation in a federal polity. Comment."

Skeleton: Ecological significance of the Ghats → Gadgil versus Kasturirangan and the natural/cultural landscape distinction → six draft notifications, the 2024 draft of 56,825.7 sq km, its lapse, the 2022 expert committee and its 2026 extension → why states resist (livelihoods, plantations, mining, political economy) → the phased-notification option as a pragmatic route.

Mains practice question with model answer structure

Q. "India has built an impressive climate assessment apparatus but a weak climate adaptation delivery system." Critically examine in the light of recent district-level vulnerability findings. (250 words, 15 marks)

Introduction (about 30 words): Open with the 27 July 2026 Lok Sabha statement — 109 districts at "very high" risk, 201 "highly" vulnerable — and frame the paradox between measurement capacity and delivery capacity.

Body — The assessment apparatus works (about 70 words): ICAR-NICRA district assessment across 651 districts on IPCC protocols; MoES Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region (2020); IMD's Climate Hazard and Vulnerability Atlas covering 13 event types; Third National Communication (2023); DST's district-level flood and drought risk assessment. India has genuine domestic modelling capability, not borrowed estimates.

Body — Delivery lags (about 80 words): No allocation formula linking the 310-district list to finance; NAFCC corpus small relative to need; adaptation financed mainly by relabelling existing spending; SAPCCs strong on planning, weak on execution; the Western Ghats ESA — six drafts since 2014, the 56,825.7 sq km draft of 2024 lapsed, expert committee extended again in June 2026. Diagnosis has outpaced decision.

Body — Balanced judgement (about 40 words): Assessment is a precondition for adaptation, so the apparatus is not wasted. But data without a fiscal transmission mechanism is description, not policy. The rainfed-irrigated yield gap shows how much damage is avoidable.

Conclusion (about 30 words): Convert the vulnerability classification into a budgeting instrument, notify the Western Ghats ESA in phases, and make district adaptation performance auditable under the Disaster Management Act framework.

Key terms glossary

• Vulnerability: in IPCC usage, the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected, encompassing sensitivity to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
• Exposure: the presence of people, livelihoods, species, ecosystems, resources or assets in places that could be adversely affected by a hazard.
• Adaptive capacity: the ability of systems, institutions and people to adjust to potential damage or respond to consequences.
• Rainfed agriculture: cultivation dependent entirely on rainfall — roughly half of India's net sown area.
• Terminal heat stress: high temperature during the grain-filling stage of a cereal, shortening the filling period and producing shrivelled, low-weight grain.
• NAPCC: National Action Plan on Climate Change, launched 2008, comprising nine national missions.
• SAPCC: State Action Plan on Climate Change, the state-level counterpart of the NAPCC.
• NDC: Nationally Determined Contribution, the climate pledge each Party communicates under the Paris Agreement.
• Panchamrit: the five climate commitments announced by India at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, including net zero by 2070.
• Ecologically Sensitive Area (ESA): an area notified under the Environment (Protection) Act, 1986 in which specified activities are prohibited or regulated.
• Mainstreaming: financing adaptation by integrating it into existing sectoral programmes rather than through dedicated additional budgets.

Quick revision summary

• 109 districts classified 'very high' climate-risk; 201 districts 'highly' vulnerable (total 310).
• Assessment covered 651 predominantly agricultural districts under ICAR's NICRA project, using IPCC protocols.
• Rainfed rice yield projected down 20% by 2050 and 47% by 2080 without adaptation.
• Irrigated rice down 3.5% by 2050 and 5% by 2080 — irrigation is the single biggest buffer.
• Wheat down 19.3% by 2050 and 40% by 2080; maize down 18% by 2050 and 23% by 2080.
• Annual milk yield loss from heat stress in cattle and buffalo: about 1.8–2 million tonnes.
• Ministry of Earth Sciences published 'Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region' in 2020.
• India's Third National Communication to the UNFCCC was submitted in 2023.
• IMD runs a web-based 'Climate Hazard and Vulnerability Atlas of India' covering 13 hazardous meteorological events.
• NAPCC (2008) is the overarching framework; it has nine national missions, six of which focus on adaptation.
• India's updated NDC (August 2022): 45% cut in emissions intensity of GDP by 2030 from 2005 levels; about 50% non-fossil installed power capacity by 2030.
• Net-zero target year: 2070, announced at COP26 Glasgow as part of Panchamrit.
• The sixth Western Ghats ESA draft notification (31 July 2024, published 2 August 2024) covered 56,825.7 sq km across six states and has lapsed.
• The MoEFCC expert committee on Western Ghats ESA, constituted in 2022 and headed by Sanjay Kumar, received a one-year extension in late June 2026.
• Union Environment Minister: Bhupender Yadav.

Frequently asked questions

What exactly did the Environment Minister tell the Lok Sabha on 27 July 2026?

Bhupender Yadav stated that national-level assessments of climate change and extreme weather conducted over the past ten years have identified 109 districts as 'very high' climate-risk and 201 districts as 'highly' vulnerable. He also cited NICRA simulation modelling on crop yields and outlined the National Action Plan on Climate Change as the overarching framework.

Are the 109 and 201 district figures new?

No. The same classification — 109 'very high' and 201 'highly' vulnerable districts — was placed before Parliament in December 2023 by the then Agriculture Minister, drawn from the same ICAR-NICRA district-level assessment. The July 2026 reply consolidates and restates existing findings rather than announcing a fresh survey. That is an important caveat for aspirants writing about 'new' assessments.

What is NICRA and who runs it?

The National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture is a flagship network project of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) under the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare, launched in 2011. It conducts district-level risk and vulnerability assessment of agriculture, develops climate-resilient varieties and practices, and runs demonstration villages.

Why does irrigated rice fall only 3.5% while rainfed rice falls 20%?

Irrigation decouples the crop from monsoon variability, which is the dominant climate stressor for Indian agriculture. The gap between 3.5% and 20% by 2050 is effectively a measurement of what assured water access is worth as an adaptation measure. It also explains why water missions and micro-irrigation sit at the centre of India's adaptation strategy.

How many missions does the NAPCC have and how many are adaptation-focused?

Nine national missions: solar, enhanced energy efficiency, sustainable habitat, water, sustaining the Himalayan ecosystem, Green India, sustainable agriculture, human health, and strategic knowledge on climate change. Six of the nine focus on adaptation, according to the Minister's reply.

What is the difference between climate hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk?

In the IPCC framework, hazard is the climate event itself (a heatwave, a cyclone). Exposure is the people, assets and systems located where the hazard occurs. Vulnerability is the propensity to be adversely affected, combining sensitivity and lack of adaptive capacity. Risk emerges from the interaction of all three. A district can face a severe hazard yet be low-risk if exposure and vulnerability are low.

What is the Western Ghats ESA controversy and why does it matter here?

The Centre has issued six draft notifications since 2014 to declare parts of the Western Ghats an Ecologically Sensitive Area. The sixth, dated 31 July 2024 and published on 2 August 2024, covered 56,825.7 sq km across Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. It has lapsed without being finalised. In late June 2026 the expert committee examining state objections was given another year. It matters because it shows the gap between diagnosing vulnerability and acting on it.

Which committees examined the Western Ghats and what did they recommend?

The Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel headed by Madhav Gadgil (report 2011) recommended treating the entire Western Ghats as ecologically sensitive, graded into three zones with the strictest curbs in ESZ-1. The High Level Working Group headed by K. Kasturirangan (report 2013) narrowed this by distinguishing 'natural' from 'cultural' landscapes and recommended ESA status for roughly 37% of the Ghats — about 60,000 sq km. Successive draft notifications have worked off the Kasturirangan approach.

Is there a judicial recognition of climate change as a rights issue in India?

Yes. In M.K. Ranjitsinh and Others v. Union of India (2024), the Supreme Court, hearing the Great Indian Bustard matter, read a right to be free from the adverse effects of climate change into Articles 14 and 21. It grounded this in constitutional provisions including Article 48A and Article 51A(g).

How should I use these numbers in a Mains answer?

Use the district counts to establish spatial concentration of risk, the yield projections to establish sectoral exposure, and the Western Ghats deadlock to establish the implementation gap. Do not simply list all four crop figures. Pick rainfed versus irrigated rice as a contrast pair — it makes an argument rather than reciting data.

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Sources

• ETV Bharat, “Govt Climate Audit Flags 109 High-Risk Districts, Warns Of 47% Drop In Rice Yield, Says Union Environment Minister”, 27 July 2026. Link
• [Primary] Indian Council of Agricultural Research / Lok Sabha, “Lok Sabha Unstarred Question No. 2365 — Study on Adverse Impact of Climate Change on Crops”, 10 December 2024. Link
• [Primary] UNFCCC, “India's Updated First Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement (2021-2030)”, August 2022. Link
• The Indian Express, “More time for Western Ghats panel as eco-sensitive area deadlock continues”, July 2026. Link
• The Indian Express, “Exclusive: 13 years later, protection for Western Ghat areas in 3 states almost ready”, July 2026. Link